I agree with you guys on the Rocky Over. The 5-day gives it a huge boost. Wednesday opening will be huge with all of the fanboys, and then it should have a solid weekend, to go well over imo. By my calculations, after you take out opening Wednesday and Thursday, the line is only around $14 mil weekend, which is a really low $4.7k PTA.
It's expensive at -200-ish, but I'm thinking that if you want the Over and don't get in now, the line will probably move to at least 24-25. Advance sales have started and look promising, and should only boost the movie's BO expectations.
Oh, and the Rocky history is enormous. Looking at old data from the 80's, it's strong enough to go well over this line, even without adjusting for inflation. Adjusting for inflation and being in 3x as many theaters should make it kill the line imo.
Some of my other thoughts on the rest of the weekend's openers.
The #1 film (despite a huge Rocky 5-day) for the weekend should easily be the movie that hits all demographics in expected comedy blockbuster A Night at the Museum (Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, Robin Williams). It's tracking well, has interest from all age groups, an enormous number of theaters, biggest and most screens in them, and Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson have great box office histories. Their past comedies have easily done $27m+ mil as a floor, and have gotten into the $40's. This will hit not only those audiences, but families as well (who are waiting to see something, after Charlotte's Web bombing), and should be the Christmas movie of the season. Taking the Over at -150 and liking it. This one could see a line change upwards too, imo. (Can you say potential middles?)
Feel-good inspirational football story in We Are Marshall (Matthew McConaghey, Matthew Fox). These always seem like the the same old weepy tragedy/comeback story, and yet do consistently well. People in the South like them they football. Nowhere near a blockbuster, but at an $8m line, it doesn't need to be. It's a super-low PTA, and has been getting great marketing, playing on regular channels, and playing on ESPN non-stop, also with it's stars getting special interviews and coming into the studio for SportsCenter. Last week's Pursuit of Happyness shows the potential for feel-good movies based on true stories. Again taking the Over and liking it.
And finally, an adult drama in The Good Shepherd (Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie, Robert DeNiro). Some huge names that should be a draw, as well as an interesting concept in "the birth of the CIA." Slightly weak marketing though, and family movies do better over Christmas rather than older-skewing critical dramas. A little less sure on this one, but Pursuit's success was due in large part to Will Smith, as much as anything else, so all the big stars in this one should help it to at least clear the low $7m line. Small Over, a little less comfortable on this one.
So what are you guys interested in seeing this weekend? Our sports betting forum gets a boxing movie and a football movie. But more importantly, of course, what are you betting on?
